FLARE

 Framework for Line-Asset Risk Evaluation

Risk evaluation of line-assets, such as sewers, roads, pipelines, and cables, involves assessing the likelihood and consequences of failures to prioritize maintenance, replacement or upgrades.

 

These assets often extend over large areas and are critical for public utilities, safety, health, economic prosperity and the environment.

 

Evaluation typically considers factors like asset condition, age, environmental exposure, usage levels and potential impacts of failure.

 

Techniques such as geographic information systems (GIS), predictive modeling, and risk matrices are often used to map vulnerabilities and guide decision-making, ensuring resource allocation aligns with minimizing operational disruptions and societal costs.

About

The development of a Framework for Line-Asset Risk Evaluation (FLARE) is a collaborative initiative designed to bring together research and educational institutions, municipalities, local governments, asset owners, and maintenance contractors. The goal is to develop and share a standardized, science-based approach for evaluating risks associated with line-assets such as sewers, roads, pipelines, and cables.

Benefits:

  1. Standardization: Provides a uniform approach to risk evaluation across regions, promoting consistency and comparability.
  2. Proactive Asset Management: Enables early identification of high-risk assets, reducing unexpected failures and maintenance costs.
  3. Educational Advancement: Equips future professionals with cutting-edge skills in infrastructure risk assessment.
  4. Data-Driven Decisions: Leverages shared data to support evidence-based policy and investment planning.
  5. Enhanced Collaboration: Strengthens ties between academia, government, and industry, fostering innovation and sustainability.

Key Objectives:

  1. Develop a Risk Evaluation Framework: Create a comprehensive, modular framework that integrates best practices, scientific methodologies, and real-world data to assess the condition, criticality, and failure risks of line-assets.
  2. Collaborative Data Sharing: Establish a unified platform where municipalities and asset owners can share asset data, maintenance histories, and environmental conditions to enhance the accuracy of risk assessments.
  3. Education and Training: Develop specialized academic courses and workshops focused on risk evaluation methodologies, data analysis, and decision-making tools, ensuring knowledge transfer to students and professionals.
  4. Policy Alignment: Work with provincial and local governments to ensure the framework aligns with regulatory requirements, sustainability goals, and funding priorities.

Systematic Approach and Risk Evaluation

Systematic Asset Management Approach:

  • Value: Determine the objectives of the organisation and the core values
  • Alignment: Create a line of sight between organisational objectives and activities
  • Leadership: Provide right culture and conditions for value realisation
  • Assurance: Check if actions lead to value realisation

Core Values

The core values of an organization are the fundamental principles and beliefs that guide its actions, decisions, and culture. They reflect what the organization stands for, shaping its identity and fostering trust with employees, stakeholders, and the community. Core values such as integrity, innovation, collaboration, sustainability, and excellence create a shared sense of purpose and set the standard for behavior, driving long-term success and alignment with its mission.

Risk

Risk is the measure of potential harm or loss arising from an event, calculated as the product of the consequences of that event and the probability of its occurrence. In the context of assets, it reflects the impact of a malfunction and the likelihood of it happening, guiding decision-making to mitigate potential threats effectively.

Consequences

The consequences (or impact) of an asset malfunction can be assessed through the lens of an organization’s core values, such as safety, reliability, and sustainability. For example, a malfunction impacting public safety or environmental health directly conflicts with these values, undermining trust and accountability. By prioritizing values in risk evaluation, organizations ensure their responses address not only operational needs but also uphold their commitments to stakeholders and the community.

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Probability

The likelihood (or probability) of an asset malfunction depends on factors such as its age, condition, usage, and exposure to environmental stresses. Regular maintenance, quality materials, and proper design reduce the chances of failure, while neglect or harsh operating conditions increase the probability of malfucntion. Well balanced assessment of these factors is essential for proactive management and minimizing unexpected breakdowns.

Per line segment, FLARE integrates an organization's core values and the relative importance with the segment condition, to assess the risk of malfunction, in infrastruture such as pipelines, roads, or cables. It assesses consequences and probability to evaluate risk:

 

1. Define Core Values and Determine Consequences

  • Identify Core Values: Start by identifying organizational core values, such as safety, sustainability, reliability, and service continuity.
  • Translate Values into Consequence Categories: Use the core values to define measurable consequences of asset malfunction, such as:
    • Safety: Risk of injury or loss of life.
    • Environmental Impact: Pollution or ecological damage.
    • Economic Cost: Repair costs, downtime, or loss of service.
    • Reputation: Public trust or regulatory non-compliance.
  • Quantify Consequences: Assign impact levels (e.g., low, medium, high) to these categories based on the severity of the outcome.
  • Consequence Proxies: Use surrogate metrics when direct impact measures are unavailable, such as:
    • Proximity to critical infrastructure (e.g., schools, hospitals).
    • Population density near the asset.

2. Assess Current and Historical Condition to Define Probability

  • Condition and Deterioration Analysis: Evaluate current and past data on asset condition, including:
    • Material degradation and damage (e.g., corrosion, cracks).
    • Maintenance and inspection records.
    • Environmental factors (e.g., soil type, weather exposure).
  • Deterioration Modeling: Use predictive models to estimate future condition and likelihood of failure.
  • Proxies for Probability: Employ proxies where direct data is unavailable, such as:
    • Age of the asset as an indicator of wear.
    • Traffic volume for roads or pressure levels for pipelines.

3. Combine Consequences and Probability for Risk Assessment

  • Risk Calculation: Combine consequence categories (aligned with core values) and probabilities derived from condition analysis and proxies:                      Risk=Consequence×Probability of Malfunction
  • Segment-Based Assessment: Divide line-assets into manageable segments (e.g., by physical pipeline segments) and evaluate each individually.

4. Visualization and Prioritization

  • Risk Mapping: Visualize risks across the line-asset to identify high-risk segments (via GIS, dashboards and fault trees).
  • Prioritization: Focus resources on segments with the highest risk scores, ensuring alignment with core values and operational priorities.


This framework creates a structured, value-driven approach to assess the risk of malfunction of line-assets, using both direct data and proxies to address data gaps. It supports informed decision-making and proactive maintenance strategies to safeguard assets and uphold organizational commitments.

Line-Assets

Examples of the application of FLARE:

…a framework for risk and data-driven sewer management

Roads





Cables

Research

FLARE is a non-profit, open-source research and development initiative. The research projects are carried out through cooperation between various partners, combining subject matter experts and university research. Funding is provided in the form of direct financing of the research or a combination with subsidies from various sources.

Riobase Research Project

Framework for sewer risk evaluation with municipalites in Zeeland, NL

Asset Management Research

HZ University of Applied Sciences

Data Science Research

HZ University of Applied Sciences

Contact

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